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Could Trump's $200 Billion Mortgage Bond Plan Bring Back Those Ultra-Low 3% Rates?
Having been in the mortgage business for over two decades now, I've helped thousands of clients lock in those sweet 3% loans – and yeah, many even got down into the 2% range back during the pandemic. Those times made buying a home or refinancing feel almost too good to be true. So I'm keeping a close eye on whether President Trump's latest move – directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds – might push rates lower again. This is the kind of thing I'm talking about with my partners and clients these days, based on what I've seen in the markets.
Looking Back: What Quantitative Easing Did Before
To give you some context, let's look back at quantitative easing (QE) after the 2008 crash. The Federal Reserve bought huge amounts of mortgage-backed securities – those are just bundles of home loans turned into bonds.
First big round (2008-2010)
Over $1.25 trillion bought → Helped drop 30-year rates from about 6% to 4.5-5%.Later round (2012-2014)
Another trillion-plus → Pushed rates to lows around 3.5-4%.Total at peak
Fed held more than $2.7 trillion → Really steadied housing, boosted buying, and lowered payments for tons of people.
How Trump’s Plan Compares
Trump's plan uses the same basic idea: more buying means more demand, which can help lower rates. But it's $200 billion through Fannie and Freddie (not the Fed), and the whole mortgage bond market is around $8-9 trillion.
As of today, January 9, 2026, 30-year fixed rates are right around 6.16% (per the latest Freddie Mac survey from yesterday).
What Could Happen Next
Now, here's what could happen if this gets rolling – broken down so it's easy to scan:
The cautious view (least impact):
Might only shave rates by 0.10% to 0.15%
Could dip us just below 6% – not a game-changer
Reasons: Regulatory limits for Fannie/Freddie, possible delays, and bigger factors like inflation could cancel it out
Result: Buyers might not notice much difference in payments
The hopeful middle ground (solid impact):
Could cut rates by 0.25% to 0.50%
Lands us around 5.5-5.75%
On a $300,000 loan: Saves $100-200 a month
Perks: Helps more families buy, kicks off some refinances, gives housing a nice lift
The exciting upside (biggest drop I'm rooting for):
If markets rally hard and everything aligns: Rates could fall further, maybe into the 5% range or lower soon
Sparks more buying frenzy, gets builders going again
Makes homes feel way more affordable, kinda like echoing those QE lows but in a targeted way
Final Thought
We'll find out pretty quick how it shakes out. If you're thinking about a mortgage or refinance, talk to a lender soon to see your options – rates can move fast.
What do you think – hopeful for lower rates, or waiting to see? Drop a comment or hit me up on LinkedIn. Always good to chat about this stuff!
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